...And again tying into RL Christie's eye to the trends

In arguing for a Watergate style demise for the current administration, Mr. Christie synthesizes some of the same above-mentioned trends:

***
...a "greater depression" [will be] caused by the declining dollar and high interest rates required to finance
our federal budget and trade account deficits, if the deficit is institutionalized by Bush's making his tax cuts "permanent" as one of his promised second administration priority acts with his lapdog Republican Congress; and by the continuing dollar and blood drain in Afghanistan and Iraq.

China is the key to the whole scenario. They have beaucoup American dollars from their trade surplus with the U.S. They are already bidding for world petroleum production, and will shortly be bidding for grain production.

The Chinese food reserves are almost exhausted and production is now permanently below grain consumption in that nation and will get worse because of aquifer depletion and loss of farmland to erosion and development. Lester Brown has shown that China will have to buy the entire world grain surplus in a couple of years to prevent massive starvation and
consequent social and economic upheaval - and they have the money to spend to do it. Currently, wheat price futures are up 23% from a year ago. Consider that the average American household spends 10% of gross household
income on food, while the average European household spends about 30-40%. Imagine the effect on the average debt-ridden American household's discretionary spending from a rise in food prices which consumed a larger percentage of household income, as reflected in sales of real estate, autos, goods and services.

Chinese imports of petroleum increased 30% last year, and is projected to increase by the same amount this year. Total oil consumption in China increased 10% in 2003. There is no world production capacity surplus - the last assessment I saw had a 1.5% production margin over demand if the total world oil infrastructure was running "wide open." China will have to fuel their economy from 2005 onward by outbidding other nations for oil that is currently being produced and consumed. The iron law of economics: demand increases, supply doesn't, prices go up. It is now accepted that each $10 increase in the price of a barrel of crude oil lowers the U.S. Gross Domestic Product growth rate by 0.6%.

This leads to my specific prediction: within two years, the price of food and petroleum will rise sufficiently to choke off U.S. economic growth by themselves because food and fuel would consume a larger percentage of household income and raise the price of all goods which have to be shipped. The world investment community will demand junk bond rates for our junk bond securities, as Alan Greenspan just predicted in an address to bankers in Germany. Interest rates will soar, depressing our economy. Iraq will prove to be a bloody, expensive quagmire we can't afford to walk away from as long as the place would become a Waahabist Muslim fundmentalist theocracy and terrorist sponsor state fueled by the world's second largest oil reserves - the Taliban's Afghanistan on steroids - if we pulled out. Bush will be forced to reinstitute the draft to provide enough roadside bomb fodder for the Middle East. The various special prosecutions and investigations the administration managed to stiff-arm into quiescence until November 2 was passed will re-emerge. A number of the key Bush administration figures that didn't have the sense to bail along with Colin Powell will end up being indicted, one by one, just as Nixon's staff was over Watergate. But this time, many of the crimes involved carry a mandatory death penalty (e.g., high treason).
***

Yes indeed it's more than oil

Are we really experiencing the opening days of a convergence of disintegrations?

***
From Patrick Doherty on tompaine.com:
http://www.tompaine.com/articles/democrats_quo_vadis.php

The Four Horsemen

There are four clear challenges threatening the American Experiment. Oil dependence tops the list. America consumes 25 percent of the world’s oil but has only 3 percent of the reserves. Our addiction to oil has driven us, since 1980, to pursue a strategic doctrine of securing foreign oil supplies with our military. That policy, along with the nature of the global oil market, has sustained corrupt, illegitimate regimes in oil producing regions. That corruption, combined with the long festering Israeli-Palestinian conflict, has bred Islamic terror networks. As Chinese energy consumption expands, oil prices will continue to rise, putting more money and more military pressure into the mix. Indeed, China just signed a giant, $70 billion gas deal with Iran yesterday. The result is threefold: strategic competition with other consumers, like China, India, Europe and Japan; terrorism born of the oppression and humiliation suffered by local populations caught in the strategic crossfire; and rising energy prices at home.
Likewise, our fiscal situation is dire. Eminent bankers from both parties, like Pete Peterson and Robert Rubin, are warning that the nation’s fiscal imbalance is about to ruin what remains of our economy. If we continue along the current path—the path accepted by both parties—the nation’s debts will drive interest rates through the roof and crowd out domestic discretionary spending. That will devastate workers, homeowners, retirees, investors and small businesses alike. Healthcare, education, infrastructure will all atrophy. The Congressional Budget Office concurs; without a major structural change, the deficit will overwhelm the economy.

And there’s more. The multiple failings of suburban sprawl are converging with dire consequences. The housing market is arguably the foundation of the American economy; indeed, suburban sprawl anchors spending in cars, energy, consumer products and durables. Today that foundation is crumbling. Federally-subsidized sprawl has segregated America by income and, as a result, public education is failing and politicians are able to gerrymander undemocratic districts. Continued expansion has meant overstretched but essential public services have broken down while more than $1 trillion of much-needed infrastructure investment has been ignored. As baby boomers discover that suburbs are unfriendly to the elderly, they are moving back into higher-density cities, displacing poverty into the first-ring suburbs. These migrating seniors are not interested in paying taxes for inner-city schools. That pushes young middle-class families ever farther out, increasing commuting time and decreasing good parenting. It’s downward spiral.

And then there is climate change. Florida got socked with four major hurricanes this year. Japan was hit by a record-setting eight-story high wave caused by a typhoon. Our polar ice caps are melting at increasing rates, raising sea levels, flooding low-lying cities and threatening the Gulf Stream. In a few decades, global warming will dry out California’s central valley and bake its cities. Already, reports are coming in of Bangladeshis fleeing starvation into India. France alone suffered 15,000 extra deaths in the summer of 2003 due to heat. We have a scientific consensus that the cause of all this is from burning fossil fuels and cutting down forests. Yet America is building more SUVs, OPEC and Russia are promising more oil, China is burning more coal and Brazil is cutting down more of the Amazon.

***

Bring on the Bypass?

While UDOT's definitely moving more trucks through here, the question of a bypass remains murky - why build another 4 lane highway, and a super controversial one at that, when there's a perfectly good road already in place? My instinct is that the bypass will only happen if there's overwhelming community support and initiative, and I doubt that's going to be the reality any time in our lifetime.

So: how to resolve the truck issue?

Another category: It's Time to Move On When....

...per Ms. Taylor's suggestion. I like it; I'll start the bidding with

- your extended family members have already polished off a bottle of Makers' Mark before you even mention the intellectual capacity of the electorate

Statistical Blues

From Jerry Stauffer via Lance Christie:


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With the Blue States in hand, the Democrats have firm control of 80% of thecountry's fresh water, over 90% of our pineapple and lettuce, 92% of allfresh fruit production, 93% of the artichoke production, 95% of America's export quality wines, 90% of all cheese production, 90% of the high techindustry, most of the US low-sulfur coal, all living redwoods, sequoias and
condors, all the Ivy and Seven Sister schools, plus Harvard, Yale, Amherst, Stanford, Berkeley, CalTech and MIT. We can live simply but well.

The Red States, on the other hand, now have to cope with 88% of all obese Americans (and their projected health care cost spike), 92% of all US mosquitoes, 100% of all tornadoes, 90% of all hurricanes, 99% of all Southern Baptists, 100% of all Televangelists, Rush Limbaugh, Bob Jones University, Clemson and the University of Georgia. A high price to pay for controlling the presidency.

Additionally, 38% of those in the Red states believe Jonah was actually eaten by a whale, 62% believe life is sacred unless were discussing the death penalty or gun laws, 44% believe that evolution is just a theory, 53% that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11 and most hard to grasp, 61% believe that Bush is a person of moral conviction.

Jerry Stauffer
***

Whitman v. Kennedy -

Mr. Rossi pointed out this article in the November edition of Outside Magazine:
http://outside.away.com/outside/features/200411/robert_kennedy_christine_todd_whitman_1.html

This excerpt begins to get at the role of government in dealing with environmental issues, and maybe even the future underpinnings of the U.S. economy....

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OUTSIDE: The Toyota Prius, the Honda Insight—these are the greenest and hottest cars on the market. They're both made by Japanese companies. Why isn't America the world's leading environmental innovator?
KENNEDY: In this case, $65 billion in annual subsidies to the petroleum industry has allowed oil companies to lower the price of gas. Were we paying the true cost at the pump—about $5.50 per gallon—consumers would be begging Detroit to build fuel-efficient cars. And guess what? Detroit would be building SUVs with the same size and performance of today's models. Only they'd be getting 40 miles per gallon!

We should be developing the best technology and selling it to Europe, China, Africa, and Latin America. Instead we're falling behind. If that continues, our whole automobile industry is likely to collapse over the next 20 years. You may see the end of Detroit, because they are so shortsighted.

WHITMAN: When industries get subsidies and the market is distorted, that affects behavior. There's no two ways about it. I think we should have much higher gas-mileage requirements, and I think Detroit can meet them.

The reality is, the 40-mpg car exists. What we need to do is figure out how fast we can force Detroit to move its whole fleet there in a way that will keep cars affordable, so people will be able to buy the 40-mpg car. We can do it; we just have to be smart about setting the goal and the time frame....

KENNEDY: Industry can create the demand for its products—even those that harm the public—and that's why government must play a role. If Detroit keeps building cars that burn too much fuel, that make us dependent on petty Middle Eastern dictators, that drive up our national debt, government has the responsibility to say, "You are using a public resource; you have to use it responsibly."

People have to understand that these are not esoteric issues. These are issues that go to the heart of everything we consider important in America. If Ronald Reagan had not rolled back gas-mileage standards in 1986, we could have eliminated the need to import Persian Gulf oil by the early 1990s. We might have avoided the current Iraq entanglement.
***

Into the fire, however faint

Howdy.

I have consciously resisted active participation in the blogosphere, save a few snappy posts on Matt Gross's blog and that of the ramblings of Travis LaFrance. It seems, however, that the loose community of progressives in the Moab area (that's in southeast Utah, to you blue-staters) needs an online forum for information, communication, and a connection to the wider world out there. So here it is, in all of its cyberglory - I invite your comments, commentary, responses, and suggestions.

As for content and a theme, the idea is to center around the issues that affect my home and how they relate to larger state, national, and global forces at work. Nothing too structured or scheduled. The following are topics I plan to cover, in one form or another, beyond the expected talk about what it means to be a progressive/Democrat/liberal in Utah and the U.S.:

1. Community self reliance - what it means, why it's important
2. Why the hell do I have to have kids and go to church to be considered anything but transient in Moab
3. Class war: why not?
4. Is Travis Kelly really crazy or just three cognitive steps ahead of the rest of us?

Etc. Any other suggestions?

David